Up to 57,000 homes with a reconstruction value of $13.4bn are exposed to storm surge from Hurricane Michael which is due to make landfall tomorrow in the Florida Gulf Coast with Cat 3 windspeeds, according to the property mapping firm CoreLogic.
The potential $13.4bn loss is at the top end of the spectrum CoreLogic said, with the estimate based on the destruction of all residential properties from storm surge in its path.
Hurricane-driven storm surge can cause significant property damage when high winds and low-pressure cause water to amass inside the storm, releasing a powerful rush over land when the hurricane moves onshore, CoreLogic explained.
Michael is forecast to slam the Florida coastline on Wednesday as Category 3 Hurricane bringing damaging winds.
Formed over warm sea temperatures in the western Caribbean, model guidance is unanimous in a track north towards the Florida panhandle portion of the US coastline.
The storm is expected to be a borderline Category 3 hurricane when it makes landfall, with the National Hurricane Centre forecasting winds in excess of 80 mph at landfall.
However, JLT said yesterday if Michael is slower to reach the coast it will likely have more time to intensify.
The most dominant impact is expected to be storm surge in the Big Bend of Florida of 6 to 8 feet.
In terms of category 2 or 3 landfall towards the central Florida panhandle, 16 hurricanes have made landfall since 1850 at this intensity range.
The most recent landfalling hurricane in the panhandle region at category 2 or 3 intensity was Hurricane Kate in 1985.
Storm Michael, the fourteenth tropical system of the Atlantic season, comes only a few weeks after Hurricane Florence barrelled into the Carolinas.
Florence, the first hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina since 2011, smashed into the US East Coast as a Category 1 on 14 September.
RMS has estimated that insured losses will be between $2.8bn and $5bn after Florence dumped around 33 inches of rain and brought winds of over 100mph to North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia.
